Thursday, November 29, 2007

In-line Retail Rental Rates on the Rise

By Ryan Chittum
From The Wall Street Journal Online

A strong fourth quarter helped boost the strip-mall sector to its best year since 2000, but the shopping-mall market posted mixed results.

Rents rose moderately in the U.S. mall and strip-mall sectors in the fourth quarter, while vacancies edged up in both, according to a survey. But the similarities end there for 2005, which was the best year for strip malls since 2000, while the shopping-mall market was essentially flat.

Shopping malls can be more susceptible to downturns in the economy and changes in consumer taste than their strip-mall cousins because they put more emphasis on discretionary items; strip malls tend to have more stores selling nondiscretionary items and are less affected by slips in consumer sentiment.

The shopping-mall vacancy rate tiptoed up to 5.5% in the fourth quarter from 5.4% in the third quarter, according to a quarterly survey of the top 67 U.S. markets by Reis Inc., a New York-based real-estate research firm. Asking rents moved up 0.5% to $38.27 per square foot per year in the last quarter, from $38.08 in the third quarter. The 5.5% mall vacancy rate at the end of 2005 was slightly higher than the 5.3% logged at the end of 2004. Rents were up just 1% for the year, putting their two-year gain at an anemic 0.9% after a 0.1% decline in 2004.

Asking rents at strip malls, on the other hand, gained a solid 3.2% in 2005, their best showing in five years. While the strip-mall vacancy rate crept down to 6.8% at the end of 2005 from 7% a year earlier, absorption -- the net change in occupied space -- was strong at 30.3 million square feet, also the best showing in five years.

For the quarter, average rents in strip malls were up 0.9% to $18.41 a square foot from $18.24 in the third quarter. Absorption was strong at 8.6 million square feet, but a stepped-up construction pace lifted vacancies to 6.8% in the fourth quarter from 6.7% in the previous period.

Casino's Gamble on Vegas Conventions

By Tamara Audi
From The Wall Street Journal Online

More than a decade ago, before his name started popping up on lists of the world's richest men, Sheldon Adelson had an idea few thought would work: build two massive casino-resort hotels on the Las Vegas strip joined by millions of square feet in convention space. In those days, the convention trade was just an afterthought in Vegas, a mechanism to fill rooms during the week before the gamblers invaded on the weekend.

Now the Las Vegas Sands Corp. chief executive's vision is nearly complete, and Vegas's convention and meetings business has transformed from filler during slow periods into a pillar of the casino industry.

In late December, Las Vegas Sands plans to open the $2 billion Palazzo hotel tower, next to the company's Venetian hotel, which opened in 1999. Both hotels, with their total of more than 7,000 rooms, will be linked to the recently expanded Sands Expo and Convention Center.

When the Palazzo opens, the company will unveil a marketing campaign that pitches the entire 19-million-square-foot complex as MEGACENTER -- in all-capital letters true to Mr. Adelson's "bigger is better" style. The center's 2.25 million square feet of meeting space, Mr. Adelson says, is more than that offered by the entire city of San Francisco.

Without stepping outside, a guest at either of the hotels would have access to 30 restaurants, two spas, casinos, theater and shops -- as well as five stories of meeting space with rooms for groups as small as 50 and as large as 55,000.

The completion of the complex comes as the Las Vegas convention business is in the midst of a boom, with resorts aggressively pursuing the convention business as profit from hotels, restaurants, spas and other entertainment has outstripped that from gambling's slot machines and blackjack tables.

Though conventioneers have tromped across casino floors on their way to exhibit halls and conference rooms for decades, their numbers -- and spending -- have recently skyrocketed. Last year, 6.3 million business travelers visited Las Vegas for conventions or business meetings, up from 5.7 million in 2004, according to the Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority. Those visitors spent $8.2 billion. The group says it has tracked a significant increase in the number of business conferences, smaller group meetings of anywhere from 10 people to 1,000. Meanwhile, conventions and trade shows draw tens of thousands of visitors annually.

"In the last five years you have seen an explosion of meeting space and exhibit space," said Chris Meyer, vice president of convention sales for the LVCVA.

In the past, Las Vegas businesses didn't see conventioneers as a prime target, in part because their rooms were steeply discounted and some groups were notorious for their light gambling habits. These days, weekday room rates at convention hotels have risen because of the rising demand from business travelers. And even if convention attendees don't gamble, they often spend on Vegas's vastly expanded retail, dining and spa offerings.

Mr. Adelson, a native of Boston, made his name and fortune with Comdex, at one time Las Vegas's premier computer trade industry show. He has made conventions the centerpiece of his business model at the Las Vegas hotel, casino and resort development company.

Today's business is certainly a long way from when Mr. Adelson took over the Las Vegas Sands casino in 1989. Then, the average daily rate for a room was $60, he recalls. He demolished the old casino -- an iconic locale that hosted Frank Sinatra and the rest of the Rat Pack in its heyday -- to make way for the all-suites Venetian. In the first three quarters of this year, the average rate for a night at the Venetian was $259, with 99.7 percent occupancy. Mr. Adelson attributes the rise in room rates in large part to the convention business, and his company says 40% of the Venetian's overall occupancy comes from convention and meeting visitors.

The company opened Sands Expo in 1991, and last year added 400,000 square feet of meeting space to it.

Even hotels without massive exhibit halls are eager to take advantage of growth in the meetings business. Harrah's Entertainment Inc., which owns six properties in Vegas, recently recast its conference strategy by offering the same perks and discounts at all Harrah's properties for a single event. Planners and VIPs in attendance also get a "diamond" card allowing them to wait in different lines than tourists at all Harrah's properties. The visitors and planners "get this unique experience with varied properties, but they also get to leverage their spending with one organization," says Michael Massari, the vice president of Las Vegas Meetings By Harrah's Entertainment. Harrah's started the program in 2005, and revenues from its conference and meetings business have grown by 43% from 2004 to 2006, he says.

In 2003, MGM Mirage significantly increased the convention and meeting space at its Mandalay Bay property from 200,000 square feet to 1.5 million square feet.

The LVCVA is expanding the city's free-standing convention center by a million square feet. When the expansions and renovations are complete in 2012, the center will total four million square feet.

Even as Vegas puts the finishing touches on new convention space, and plans still more meeting space in the future, business travel may drop if the U.S. economy continues to slide. That could put a dent in Vegas' convention business in the short term, analysts say.

"It's reasonable to expect some slowdown. But hotel and convention centers aren't disposable assets. You build them for the long-term,'' said Robert LaFleur, a lodging and gambling analyst for Susquehanna. "And at the end of the day, people will want to go to Las Vegas. They always have, and they always will."

Las Vegal Sands executives said that one hurdle with Megacenter is to avoid overwhelming visitors. They stress that the two hotels are run as separate entities with separate staffs and lobbies for better service.

"The customer gets a critical mass of a 7,000 room complex in an intimate 3,000 room setting," said Sands executive vice president Brad Stone, only half-joking. Mr. Stone, who has been with Mr. Adelson from the early planning stages 12 years ago, says the Palazzo was in the works for so long that the concept changed from an island resort motif to a luxury concept -- reflecting Las Vegas's move away from the theme-park trend in favor of more grown-up decor.

The Palazzo is joined to a section of the Venetian that houses a theater and restaurants, and leads directly to exhibit and meeting space. Unlike the Venetian, with its gondoliers and renaissance clown jugglers, the Palazzo features soaring sunlit spaces, clean lines and wide corridors that will be filled with gardens and fountains. On a recent tour of the property, a sleek Barney's department store was taking shape, along with an ornate, low-lit cafe.

"The vision for this property has been validated a long time ago," Mr. Adelson said. At the time he was planning the hotel-convention complex, "everybody always thought I was nuts...Now everybody is copying us."

Email your comments to rjeditor@dowjones.com.

Citigroup to write off 3 Billion in CDO's

By Andrew Dowell
From The Wall Street Journal Online

NEW YORK -- Bank of America Corp. said Tuesday it will take a pretax write-down of about $3 billion in the fourth quarter to reflect a drop in value of securities related to mortgages and will spend $600 million supporting in-house money-market funds that are exposed to troubled financing entities called structured investment vehicles.

The bank also will suffer a $300 million impairment of the value of a mezzanine investment, Chief Financial Officer Joseph Price told analysts in New York.

Mr. Price also said the market for syndicating loans made to finance leveraged buyouts, while somewhat improved from the summer, remains "fragile" and will be tested by big deals that banks like Bank of America are bringing to market soon.

The disclosures make Bank of America the latest institution to lift the lid on the damage done by its exposure to positions harmed by the implosion of the market for subprime mortgage loans.

Analysts in particular have been concerned about losses related to so-called collateralized debt obligations, which bundle loans and other securities and then slice them into new debt. The market for CDOs has collapsed due to concerns about their exposure to subprime mortgages. Conditions in that market could worsen, Mr. Price warned.

"There could be an additional diminution of value," he said.

The bank cut back its share buybacks to restore its capital levels after completing its acquisition of LaSalle Bank Corp. on Oct. 1. Bank of America won't restore those cuts in buybacks before the second half of next year, Mr. Price said.

Bank of America shares recently were up 72 cents, or 1.6%, at $44.70.

Mortgage-related write downs across the banking industry were more than $40 billion in the third quarter, and the fourth quarter could end up being worse. Along with Bank of America, Wachovia Corp. last week marked down the value of its loan-backed securities by about $1.1 billion, Citigroup Inc. has said it will write down as much as $11 billion and Morgan Stanley anticipates a write-down of up to $6 billion in the fourth quarter.

-- The Associated Press contributed to this article

Monday, November 19, 2007

Retail Roundup Nov. 2007

CoStar Reports on Retail Expansion Plans, New Developments, Acquisitions/Mergers/Sales, Cutbacks, Personnel, Sustainability and more...
This week in the Retail Roundup, CoStar reports on expansions and new concepts at Starbucks, TJX, Charlotte Russe, Pet Supermarket, Qdoba Mexican Grill and Relax the Back; new retail developments in IL, VA, TX and NY; acquisition, merger, or sale activity at The Shoe Box, F.A.O. Schwarz, Big Dog, Luxottica, Susser, Party City, Wendy's, Zale and Westfield; Dispositions or Cutbacks at Discovery Channel, BP and Steak 'N Shake; sustainability efforts at Wal-Mart, Simon, Glimcher and JLL; and more.

Read More Here

The True Cost of Building Green Real Estate

http://www.wbcsd.org/DocRoot/seqH6hKIxVrTRYxAhemY/EEBSummaryReportFINAL.pdf

Recent Studies Show buildings consume 40% of all energy in most countries. This comprehensive report outlines the trends and growth of energy efficiency in real estate, and offers insight into the true cost of "Going Green"

Enjoy!

Thursday, November 15, 2007

New York Real Estate Market from Arbor Realty Trust

n Arbor Realty Trust Inc.'s Q3 2007 conference call, the real estate investment trust's CEO Ivan Kaufman talks about the state of the commercial real estate market in New York (emphasis added):

Don Fandetti - Citigroup:
Hi. Ivan, quick question. Obviously, you've been involved in the New York market for quite sometime. There is a concern about financial services. Wanted to get your perspective from a commercial real estate standpoint and also can you comment on the outlook for the condo market in New York?

Ivan Kaufman, Chairman, President and CEO of Arbor:
Sure. First, regarding fortune we have a large part of our portfolio in the New York market and New York has been some sort of anomaly compared to the rest of United States. Some say it is the Europe, some say that New York is still the capital of the world financially. But the fact that the matter is that New York is still extremely on solid ground but let me give you my outlook a little bit on what I think.

If you have condo product to sell today, it is selling very, very nicely. Do I think that that market will soften up? We only got to rate our product to 30% discount to market.

So I think that what's happening on Wall Street. You would think that there would be some softness in the market. We haven't seen it yet but I expect that market to soften and all non-Prime products will suffer first. The client always retains itself fairly well.

But I think we'll have 10% to 20% softening on the prices but I guess if you look at the newspaper yesterday and you saw a guy buying a $150 million apartment, you'd be a little surprised. But that's my outlook, it will soften a little bit.

... It amazes me the rents that people have achieved over the last 12 months and we've guided our underwriters on luxury buildings to still maintain an underwriting profile depending on location of the $60 to $100 range, which is historically [what] New Yorkers supported [for the] new office market.

The $150, $175, $125 rents that were being achieved are not sustainable at least from our underwriting standards. I did hear for the first time these weeks some numbers are low... softening in the office market in New York City.

I suspect that there will some softening, I knew -- you will see office market rent coming down to be more inline with what historical rents have been with some level of appreciation, but not the levels that we have seen."

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Duscany Financial Group - The client's best interest!

All Mortgage companies are not created equal. At Duscany Financial Group our mission is to offer you the benefits of dealing with a team whose dedication to service and excellence is unparalleled in the industry.

By combining dedication with experience and utilizing multiple funding sources we are equipped to provide our clients the opportunity to maximize the value of their acquisition or refinance

We have only one goal throughout: "the client's best interest!"

Commercial Loans

Thursday, November 8, 2007

State By State Regulatory office for Commercial Mortgage Brokers

http://www.vecfinancial.com/portal/content/default/broker/articles/pdf/BrokeringRegulationsByState.pdf

Marketing Yourself as a Commercial Mortgage Broker

What you know makes all the difference.

Countless surveys and articles have been written about how an independent commercial mortgage broker can market themselves. You can attend seminars, read books, listen to web broadcasts, or get the advice of your business associates. Marketing advice is everywhere, but who gets it? Who does it right? What can you do to bring clients to your doorstep? I’m not talking about leads, you can buy leads. I’m talking about real clients, the kind of clients that need your expertise, and will pay you real money to get it. I will tell you who will not come knocking at your door. Clients that don’t know you exist.

Ok here is the secret to marketing. Do something. Whether right or wrong, do something. If you do nothing, it will always be the wrong thing. Don’t be afraid to get your name out there. If you do something, you will be right some of the time and “some of the time” will bring you clients. It’s not about a fancy ad campaign. Most of us can’t afford that sort of expense and it won’t work anyway. What clients need in the commercial mortgage industry is expertise and options. Options that will get their deals funded, and options that you, the expert commercial mortgage broker can offer. Educate those clients and you will reap the rewards.

Step 1- Figure out what makes you unique. Why would someone want to work with you to finance their commercial mortgage? Are you knowledgeable about the mortgage industry? Do you have multiple commercial lender contacts that make you invaluable to a potential client? If so, let them know.

Step 2- Write articles, send informational emails, write a newsletter, speak at investor events, anything to let people know who you are and why they need to do business with you. Above all educate your clients about yourself and about the commercial mortgage industry. Don’t assume that they know what they are doing, assure they know what they are doing. It will make your job easier in the long run.

Step 3- Do it with a smile, self confidence, and a helpful spirit. No one wants to work with someone who is condescending or pessimistic. A lot of people have made it far with a smile and a great attitude. Know you can do it and get out there and do it. Henry Ford once said “Whether you think you can or you can’t, you’re right”.

My time in military service taught me one great life lesson. That lesson is to control the things in your life that you can control and don’t worry about the things you have no control over. There is nothing you can do to change those things. Think about that for a moment. How much time do you spend worrying about interest rates, traffic, or global warming? These are all things you have no control over, so don’t worry about them. Whether your phone will ring tomorrow, next week, or next month with your next commercial deal is something you can control. Something you and only you can make happen. Take some time to decide what works best for you. What fits your style and abilities? Are you a good writer? Then write some articles and educate the commercial investors in your area on commercial finance. Are you better face to face? Join every investor or community group you can and go meet people. Having no budget is not an excuse for not marketing.

They only secret is to do something. No one knows your business better than you do. What makes you different? Why should someone do business with you? All you have to do is figure that out and let people know. Get the word out any way you can. Marketing is not magic.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

New Risk Analysis Technology Factors in Basel II Capital Adequacy Requirements

Risk Integrated, a consulting and technology firm specializing in risk measurement for commercial real estate and project finance lenders, today announced the availability of its Profitability Analysis Program for commercial real estate. The service will allow banks or lenders to evaluate the risk in their portfolios and the effectiveness of risk decisions made using their present assessment methodologies. Through the service, Risk Integrated’s Specialized Finance System (SFS) will also help financial institutions assess whether they are prepared to meet Advanced Basel II capital adequacy requirements, due to be introduced by US regulators in January 2009.

By using Advanced Basel II compliant credit risk analytics, the Profitability Analysis Program will allow lenders to evaluate a block of ten commercial real estate investment deals, both as a portfolio and as individual deals. A number of large European banks have already successfully deployed Risk Integrated’s technology to satisfy regional regulators that they stand up to the stringent demands of this level of compliance.

Risk Integrated will offer the Profitability Analysis Program as a low cost, low risk stand alone service, without the need for implementation of the system. The results are generated as a report which provides an in-depth analysis of all commercial property deals including suggestions on how to improve their risk-adjusted profitability. The reports quantify the source of risk in the portfolio and the extent to which it is caused by lease structures, interest rates, tenant creditworthiness or exit risk.

The complete 60 page report includes the full detailed results for stress tests and risk statistics such as the probability of default, loss given default, Basel II capital and risk-adjusted profitability. Risk Integrated work with the bank’s analysts to load the necessary deal data and the entire analysis can be conducted within a few working days.

Dr. Chris Marrison, CEO of Risk Integrated, states: “This is an easy way for banks to gain a fast and effective insight into the nature of the risks in their portfolio and how those risks can be mitigated through careful deal restructuring. Following our success in Europe showing banks the way to gain Advanced Basel II compliance, we have extended our services so that other banks can also benefit from Risk Integrated’s expertise and technology. Regulatory issues aside, it has never been more important for lenders to have a deep insight into the overall risk of a basket of deals in order to see how market stresses can affect not just one deal, but the whole portfolio.”

Risk Integrated’s CTO, Dr. Yusuf Jafry, considers Profitability Analysis Program to be a natural evolution of the SFS product set: “For four years we have had SFS installed on clients’ banking systems and recently have also given access to the system via ASP. By adding this service we are widening our reach to offer invaluable stress testing and cashflow simulation technology to all commercial real estate lenders. With Basel II and the current flux in the real estate markets, the service is a quick and easy way to test the adequacy of existing risk measurement systems and to understand how to make their portfolios more profitable.”

American Financial Realty Trust bought out by Gramercy Capital

The wall street journal reported today,

"

Real-estate financier Gramercy Capital Corp. agreed to buy American Financial Realty Trust, a real-estate investment trust that specializes in properties leased by financial institutions, for about $1.1 billion in cash and stock.

The deal calls for American Financial holders to get $5.50 a share in cash and 0.12096 Gramercy share for every share of American Financial. That values each share of American Financial at $8.43 a share, a 31% premium over Friday's closing price.

Gramercy will assume about $2.3 billion in American Financial debt.

"

Monday, November 5, 2007

Office Market Show Signs of Slowing

By Jennifer S. Forsyth
From The Wall Street Journal Online

The amount of sublease office space available to tenants increased nationally for the first time in five years, an indication that commercial leasing is slowing in many markets across the U.S.

The increase demonstrates that many businesses related to home-mortgage lending have returned space to the market. It also shows that many industries are nervous in light of the credit-market turmoil and want to keep costs down as much as possible until they see whether the economy will slump further in coming months.

Sublease space, in which tenants lease their rented space to other tenants, usually at below-market prices, increased to 77 million square feet in the third quarter from 73 million square feet nationwide in the second quarter, according to data provided by Grubb & Ellis Co., a real-estate services firm based in Chicago. That marked the first national increase since the third quarter of 2002, when the economy was in recession after the dot-com bust and the terrorist attacks of 2001. In the third quarter last year, available space was 76.5 million square feet.

The amount of sublease space in a market can affect the extent to which landlords can push up rents, because their "direct" space is competing with short-term sublease space that is often much cheaper, and tenants have more bargaining power.

A total of 77 million square feet is only about half the amount that was available in the so-called shadow market at the bottom of the cycle in the first quarter of 2002 and shouldn't be reason for office landlords to despair. Yet, the increase in sublease space, combined with a national vacancy rate that remained flat or barely budged downward over the quarter (depending whose data are used), indicates the market could be softening, says Bob Bach, senior vice president of research for Grubb & Ellis.

Even so, rents continue to climb. Average effective rents -- the amount tenants pay after concessions -- increased 2.4% nationwide over the third quarter, according to Reis Inc., a real-estate research firm.

Yet, soaring rents over the past few quarters could be one reason that sublease space is on the rise. As costs increase, businesses may look to downsize or even move out of a market to save money even as they must still pay on their previous lease. "Some of it is part and parcel of a market when rents have been rising rapidly, and suddenly there's more uncertainty and caution," Mr. Bach says.

Such uncertainty is related to the continuing fallout from the home-mortgage industry. Many troubled lenders are closing branch offices, and home builders have scaled back their operations. Indeed, Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's biggest home-mortgage lender, is putting as much as 200,000 square feet of office space in the Dallas suburb of Richardson, Texas, on the shadow market and another 5,000 square feet in nearby Arlington, according to Tim Terrell of Stream Realty Partners LP, who represents Countrywide.

Sublease space increased over the third quarter in 29 of the 47 markets that Grubb & Ellis monitors. While shadow space continued to drop in the strongest office markets, such as New York, Boston and San Francisco, Mr. Bach predicts that even those markets will start to see an increase in coming quarters.

In South Florida, one of the areas hardest hit by the housing crisis, sublease space in Miami-Dade County increased 28% over the past four quarters and increased 36% in Fort Lauderdale-Broward County over that time. Moreover, rising rents in Florida have been compounded by escalating insurance premiums for storm coverage and higher real-estate taxes because of the run-up in property valuations, forcing some tenants to look for cheaper space.

San Diego, where sublease space has increased 43% over the past four quarters, also has been hit hard by the housing crisis as well as an increase in office supply. Developers have added four million square feet of office space in the past few years. Thus, in some case, tenants are getting good deals on new space and subletting their older offices. "For the most part in San Diego County, there are a fair amount of opportunities in the marketplace today to leverage a transaction," says Brian Ffrench, a San Diego-based senior executive with Studley Inc., a tenant-representation firm.

Studley represented one law firm, Mintz Levin Cohn Ferris Glovsky & Popeo PC, in taking more than a floor of sublease space in the northern part of the county that was vacated by an investment firm that decided against maintaining so large an office in San Diego. That allowed Mintz Levin to get palatial offices at 20% below market rate.

In Orange County, Calif., where many of the mortgage brokers are based, the amount of sublease space on the market hasn't changed since this time last year, about 2.4 million square feet. That is because many of those lenders "threw in the keys," Mr. Bach says, and filed for bankruptcy. So the space is being marketed by landlords as direct space instead of sublease. The vacancy rate there ticked up 0.7 percentage point over the past quarter, Reis found.